The Seattle Kraken got dominated by the Vegas Golden Knights Tuesday – except in the face-off circle. Seattle won 51.5% of draws.
In terms of overall play, the Kraken performed far better in two prior games in which they didn’t break even at the dot. Seattle won 48.3% of draws in their opening night 6-1 win over Calgary, and 45.6% in a 3-1 loss to Edmonton that was tied with three minutes remaining.
Historically, the Kraken haven’t excelled at face-offs. Never in their five seasons have they won more than 48.6% of draws. Even in their 46-win, 100-point playoff year of 2022-23, Seattle finished next-to-last in face-off win pct. at 45.3%.
The Great Faceoff Debate
The fact the playoff Kraken could do so well without face-off proficiency, and do so poorly against Vegas despite an edge in the dot, just revives The Great Face-off Debate. As in, does what happens immediately after the drop of the puck really matter all that much?
The online hockey community is filled with anecdotal evidence that says “No.” However, the The MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference published a research paper which concluded, “Yeah, they sorta do matter, but hinge quite a bit on personnel.”*
*The above quotes are mine. Here’s part of their actual conclusion. “We push back against the common pure conclusion that face-offs are unimportant but concur that their importance comes down to opinions on just how many more face-offs a team can incrementally win within the scope of reasonable personnel changes, situational usage adjustments, and coaching.
“Our research suggests that the core question is not necessarily whether face-offs can be important but rather whether it is possible to predict and affordably acquire the small minority of players that will be standout face-off performers.
“We suggest that elite face-off performers can eclipse over five goals per season in projected effect and that, with strong personnel decisions, face-offs can win meaningful amounts of games over the course of a full season.”
(If you want to dive deeply into the paper’s research, methodology, sources, etc., etc., have at it here.)
Previous research by SPORTLOGiQ concluded, “Even within the same game context, not all face-off wins are created equal, with some players creating additional value through clean wins and targeting specific areas on the ice.
“In fact, players who generate the most value from face-offs do not necessarily have higher win rates, suggesting that both win percentages and win value must be taken into account to measure the full impact generated during a draw.”
Kraken Coach Explains Face-off Stragegy
Even the face-off nay-sayers would agree it’s preferable to win them rather than lose them. Kraken coach Lane Lambert recently explained the responsibility of all five players on the ice, not just the center or other forward competing in the circle.
“They have to help out. It’s not just about the centerman. A lot of times there’s a 50-50 puck laying there. Whether you win that puck is based on how ready you are.
“On wins and losses in our zone, everybody has specific responsibilities. There shouldn’t be any confusion. Of course, things happen sometimes, guys fall down or whatever, and then the thought process switches to what’s the most dangerous play.
“Offensively, you may have to adjust your route based on where the puck goes. Defensively, you may have to adjust what you’re doing based on who the most dangerous player (for the opposition) on the ice is.”
(Editor’s note: Face-off “value” has always been the key for me. Special teams in particular. Yes, it’s always better to start with the puck than without it, but penalty kill draws in your own end, if you keep losing those, you’re in deep doo doo. D-zone draws on the PK will be an area to watch for the Kraken this season)
Earlier Seattle:
— FIGHTS! Seattle Vs. Vegas; The Why?
